The following year I documented the link between El Niño and Papua New Guinea droughts, and realised that 1972 had been an El Niño year. In: Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies, M.H.Glantz, R.W.Katz, and N.Nicholls (eds. If that’s not all, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another factor that has a bearing on the southwest monsoon’s performance, is also expected to remain neutral during most of the forecasted period, according to IMD. The changes associated with the El Niño persist for about a year. Some scientists have expressed concern that the El Niño event we are currently experiencing may turn out to be the "climate disaster of the century". On a non-rotating earth warm, tropical air would rise, travel toward the poles at a high altitude, descend as it cools, and then return towards the equator as a surface wind. Nicholls,N., 1993. This prediction is based on the negative values of the SOI - the BMRC experimental rainfall prediction scheme based on near-global patterns of sea surface temperature, instead of just the SOI, has produced a similar prediction. As noted earlier, buoys were placed across the Pacific, so we could check what was happening at the ocean surface and below, on a daily basis. Some of the behaviour of wildlife can be predicted, well in advance, from simply monitoring the El Niño - Southern Oscillation. Our crops of corn have suffered greatly from the dry weather." But the drought focussed my attention on the El Niño's effects on our region, and on its use in prediction. These can lead to the thermocline (the transition layer between warm surface water and cooler, lower waters) deepening in the east Pacific.

All these efforts meant that by the El Niño events of 1991 and 1994 we were better placed to recognise quickly that we were in an El Niño and to disseminate forecasts.
The Bureau's National Climate Centre issued press statements alerting the public to the likelihood of dry conditions, in early July in both years. But this was much too late, for many people. The El Niño is defined as an increase of Eastern Tropical Pacific’s sea surface temperature (SST) of 0.5 degree Celsius from long-term average, while its opposite, the La Niña, is defined as a decrease of SST over the same area by -0.5 degree Celsius from the average. Greg and Graeme have led a major effort within Queensland to alert farmers and others to the use of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation in climate prediction and in helping farmers cope with our variable climate. Vegetatio, 91, 23-36. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? The Bureau's National Climate Centre began preparing and issuing official monthly "Seasonal Climate Outlooks" in 1989. In turn, these wind changes affect the currents which change the pattern of sea surface temperatures even more. Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 57-60.


On the steep slopes of Kenya’s Kerio valley, El Niño is still discussed with reverence and fear.