The last recorded La Niña episode was from 2017/2018 and was of short duration and low intensity. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions. This would influence land temperatures. The next La Niña year, 2016, was also quite active, with 15 named storms that included Category 5 Matthew and three other major hurricanes. Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific were also generally consistent with La Niña, despite sub-seasonal variability during the month.

2]. The consequences of these two phenomena vary mainly according to the intensity and the time of year. In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). La Niña Advisory. The low-level and upper-level winds were near average for the month as a whole, but enhanced low-level easterly winds were prominent across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during early and late August. A precipitation deficit is forecast in the Horn of Africa, southern Africa, central North America and the western and southeastern Pacific. La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance). To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. 3], with the largest departures observed in the east-central Pacific from the surface to 200m depth [Fig. 6]. Sea surface temperatures between September and November 2020 are likely to be above average for most of the world - except in the eastern Pacific. With positive values, we are witnessing the El Niño phenomenon. It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Ni ñ o 3.4 region (i.e., 5 o N-5 o S, 120 o-170 o W). The year 2020 has tended to be one of the hottest ever and despite the increase in the probability of La Niña development, global temperatures are not expected to drop. September weather outlook: more stormy spells? Tropical convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and was near average over Indonesia [Fig. Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Waters in the equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean are unseasonably cool. In August, La Niña conditions were present, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. An El Niño development scenario is almost zero because it is close to 0%. In the last week, all Nino indices were negative, with …

The forecaster consensus supports that view, and favors a borderline moderate event (Niño-3.4 index near -1.0°C) during the peak November-January season. "Global warming also contributes to increase the temperature of the sea surface and the temperature of the air" according to the WMO. La Niña is here, which could mean a cold and stormier winter than normal across the North, while the southern tier stays drier, with warmer than average temperatures. Stay tuned to next month’s update for more on La Nina’s winter weather and surf impacts around the country. The remaining 40% is associated with maintaining neutral weather conditions. El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities Based on Oceanic Ni ño Index (ONI) Jan Null, CCM Updated thru Jun-Jul-Aug 2020 : The Oceanic Ni ñ o Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Ni ñ o (warm) and La Ni ña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. Last Thursday in Geneva, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimated the 60% probability of an episode of La Niña developing.