In the 16-county region overseen by the South Florida Water Management District, the average rainfall for the year is 2.5 inches above normal. The US Southwest may have to wait for those jaw-dropping walls of dust, heavy rains and photogenic lightning strikes. WEATHER INSIDER: Like this story? "El Niño is the big, big question. The 2019 hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. During El Niño years, trade winds weaken, shifting the position of deep tropical thunderstorms in the Pacific, which disrupts upper air patterns.

El Nino is the climate phenomenon characterized by warmer than average sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. El Niño spent the fall and early winter flirting with Earth, warming up the equatorial Pacific but not making the connection with the atmosphere above. Forecasters think El Nino is over — and that’s bad news. The last El Nino was a strong one that began in 2015 and lasted into 2016.
All rights reserved (About Us). The forecasters will update those numbers June 4, three days after the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off.

“My feeling is they might not make big changes for the March to May period given a similar overall pattern,” he said. Coastal areas of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties remain “abnormally dry” — the lowest level on the federal dryness intensity scale.
Shown are average sea surface temperature departures from average for the week of July 31 based on data from 1981-2010. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO for short, is a climate pattern based on sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific and their interaction with the atmosphere. Before Trump Panama City rally, Hurricane Michael survivor says area still a 'disaster.'.

The coupling, however, is now complete, and the Climate Prediction Center declared Thursday that the global pattern often responsible for wetter and cooler Florida winters is here. National Hurricane Center director: False storm assumptions are dangerous, fuel complacency, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. It happened to be Hurricane Andrew — which obviously was devastating to southern Miami-Dade County.". El Niño… RELATED: Early forecast for 2019 hurricane season — two factors will dictate activity. © Gannett Co., Inc. 2020. When El Niño winter is in place during the winter months, The Caribbean Islands … © 2020 Advance Local Media LLC. The center is giving El Niño a 55 percent chance of sticking around into spring. Birds fly here. According to the National Weather Service in Mobile Hurricane Ivan did more damage to Baldwin County than Hurricanes Frederic (1979) and Opal (1995). What can you do now to prepare? Want more? According to NOAA El Nino and La Nina episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some could last for years.

Neale is the South Brevard watchdog reporter at FLORIDA TODAY.

WEST PALM BEACH — Will El Niño's wind shear help dampen the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, decreasing the odds of another catastrophic landfall like Florence and Michael last year? "So, don’t let your guard down as we head into a season with a bit higher probably than usual of some action in the Gulf,” Christy said.

That's a slightly less active season than typically seen from 1981-2010.

El Niño Southern Oscillation modelling through the winter 2018- 2019 NOAA . On Thursday morning NOAA announced that El Niño is here and issued an El Niño Advisory.

Sarasota is near normal with a total of 2.97 inches measured through Thursday.

As of Tuesday, nowhere south of Lake Okeechobee was in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. “Though the hurricane season is starting off slow, as in 2004, the folks in Gulf Shores will remember what happened in mid-September that year. Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami, said the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast through April is showing a higher likelihood of above normal rainfall. Twitter: @RickNeale1. The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds. Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v5 Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)]. South Florida had been slipping into severe drought until late last month when two bouts of heavy rain on Jan. 27 and Jan. 31 put most areas above normal for rainfall averages. The Atlantic hurricane season runs until Nov. 30.: NOAA raises chances for above-average hurricane season. You can blame it on the climatological pattern known as El Niño. The so-called "Groundhog Day tornado," which occurred on Feb. 2, 1998, rampaged 21 miles from the Miami International Airport to southern Broward County.

Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said some of the above normal rainfall in parts of the west is related to sub-seasonal variability in the Madden Julian Oscillation — a large scale area of storminess that circles the globe every 30 to 60 days.