After a couple of months of weaker-than-average trade winds (what we expect during El Niño conditions), they were near average overall during April. Pink areas show weaker-than-average trade winds, and green stronger. Author: Emily Becker. Excellent scientific advise on ELNINO 2019. I very much look forward to future posts from you. Good for tourist, bad for corn. Thank you for reading us—we’ve had well over 2 million unique page views so far—otherwise, we’d just be yelling into the (trade) winds. If the recent weakening in the trade winds does lead to a downwelling Kelvin wave and increases the subsurface anomalies, it could provide fuel to help this El Niño event to persist. March 14, 2019. The atmosphere also continued to reflect El Niño in April, with more clouds and rain forming over the warmer-than-average waters of the central tropical Pacific, and drier conditions over the far western Pacific and Indonesia, although this pattern was somewhat weaker than during February or March. However, there is a broad range of potential outcomes shown here, and we’re still within the spring predictability barrier, when forecast models have a tougher time making successful predictions, partly due to the tendency of ENSO to be in transition during the spring. Please check out this past ENSO blog post to find out more. Near-surface wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S) during 2018, starting at the top in September 2018 and ending in early March 2019 at the bottom. Each row in this type of image is the departure from average (1981-2010) at that time. We’ve learned a lot over the past 60 months, and we hope you have, too. However, during the first week of May, as the MJO moved into the Pacific, the trade winds weakened substantially in the west-central Pacific. However, this relationship has not been true in recent years, particularly when an extremely early SCSSM onset (1 May 2019) occurred following the … 1-2), at least until recently. El Niño conditions can also influence the Atlantic hurricane season if they remain in effect into the summer and fall. Our much-delayed weak El Niño continued into March, and forecasters give it an 80% chance to continue through the spring, with a 60% chance of continuation through the summer. What’s on our plate? Lines and paragraphs break automatically. Heat content has been elevated for the last 12 months, but recently increased again. 3), highlighting above-average SSTs consistent with a weak El Niño, but with most models predicting a transition to ENSO-neutral status by the end of summer. As this graph of climate model forecasts shows, the range of potential outcomes is huge, and includes everything from a moderate La Niña through a stronger El Niño. The trade winds usually blow from the east to the west, keeping warm water piled up in the far western Pacific. During most of February, the winds near the surface of the central Pacific were substantially slower than normal. Malawi looked wet/green, corn huge. 4). Thick clouds block heat from radiating out to space, so less radiation equals more clouds, and more radiation equals clearer skies. I am absolutely amazed regarding how much you know about meteorology and El Nino and ENSO in particular. When the trade winds slow, they allow the surface waters to warm, and can sometimes kick off or enhance a downwelling Kelvin wave, a large area of warm water that slides from the west to the east under the surface. Bikers beware, another uphill climb may be ahead of you. On July 11, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. Forecasters estimate a 70% chance that our current El Niño will continue through the summer and a 55-60% chance it will extend into the fall. 5 min rain. This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions. El Nino happened in SW Africa. Dynamical model data (purple line) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): darker purple envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter purple shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. so. We’ve talked about the MJO quite a bit on the ENSO Blog and climate.gov since this pattern can affect US weather, and interact with El Niño and La Niña. Check the Climate Prediction Center for an outlook on US seasonal patterns. This is a quick shift compared to forecasts from the last few months, which identified the persistence of El Niño through 2019 as the most likely scenario, based on SST anomalies and other oceanic and atmospheric indicators.